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008			100510r20102007nyua b 001 0 eng d
010			_a2010292618
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020			_a9780812979183
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042			_alccopycat
050	0	0	_aQ375 _b.T35 2010
082	0	0	_a003/.54 _222
100	1		_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas, _d1960-
245	1	4	_aThe black swan : _bthe impact of the highly improbable / _cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
250			_aRandom trade pbk. ed.
260			_aNew York : _bRandom House Trade Paperbacks, _cc2007.
300			_a366 p ; _c21 cm.
500			_a"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [400]-429) and index.
505	0		_aPrologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
520			_aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
650		0	_aForecasting _y2007 _zUnited States _vnewsprint.
650		0	_aUncertainty (Information theory) -- Social aspects _y2007 _zUnited States _vnewsprint.
650		2	_aForecasting _y2007 _zUnited States _vnewsprint.
650		2	_aProbability _y2007 _zUnited States _vnewsprint.
856	4	1	_3Sample text _uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-s.html
856	4	2	_3Contributor biographical information _uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-b.html
856	4	2	_3Publisher description _uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-d.html
999			_c3110 _d3110